Unnatural disaster

The Philippines is accustomed to clearing up after the destruction caused by the dozen or more monsoons that hit the archipelago each summer and autumn. But the island of Luzon is unlikely to recover swiftly from the havoc of last week, when two storms slammed into the coastal areas of Quezon province. The disaster was only partly natural and largely the work of man. Normally, the roots of trees that cover the interior Sierra Madre mountains would absorb the rain. But four decades of logging – much of it illegal – has steadily denuded the island’s mountains of trees, so they no longer function as shield or sponge. Instead, they have become powerful delivery systems of floodwater and mud.

When Typhoon Winnie hit the coast last Monday, one resident said: “Houses have been completely swept away and cars and vans have been washed away too.” By the time Typhoon Nanmadol had moved away from the coast, at least 640 people were confirmed dead and nearly 400 were missing. Rescue efforts were made almost impossible by blocked roads, washed-out bridges and the storms that succeeded Winnie.

President Gloria Macapagal has suspended all logging and promised severe punishment for lawbreakers, in the face of another reminder of how hazardous it is to fool around with Mother Nature.

Changes in British family life

A period of unprecedented change in British family life, in which adults lead more isolated lives, bringing up children on their own or not having them at all, was described in a report last week. The report says it is still too early to talk of the death of the “traditional family”, because four-fifths of dependent children still live in a family with two parents, and nine in 10 of those parents are married. But other statistics included in the report demonstrate significant changes in family demographics with profound, if often unexplored, consequences. More than 6.5m people in Britain –about 28% of households- live on their own, three times as many as 40 years ago, the report says.

The report dispels* some common misconceptions: that people living alone are not part of a family, when in fact the family remains “the key social network and primary source of informal care and support”. The extended family continues to be important, although contact with relatives has lessened, and family members are the main providers of care for elderly relatives. Grandparents are still important in childcare.

Mr Straw, the Home Secretary, last week confirmed his commitment to promoting the family, but said he wanted to “develop policies that support people in families as they really are today, not according to some outdated ideal”.

Glossary:
*dispels= desmiente

A university challenge to racism

Thinking he was a thief, police shot a young black dentist who had just dropped his girlfriend off a Sao Paulo's international airport on February 3rd. That killing haunted a celebration which took place a week later, the opening of Brazil's first college catering mainly to blacks. It "shows the dimension" of the exclusion of black Brazilians from a society that until recently considered itself unusually tolerant, says José Vicente, president of Afrobras, a group that is the moving force behind the school.

Race and racism are both slippery ideas in Brazil. Nearly half the population is non-white if you count people who describe themselves as black or brown. Both groups are poorer than other Brazilians, less well-educated and paid less for the same work. The new school aims to fill the vacuum. Its 200 students are studying management, with a view to finding jobs in the growing markets. Mr Vicente sees them as the nucleus of a new élite that will encourage other blacks to study, earn and lead the struggle for equal rights.

Ignez Bacelar, one of the students, says that most universities are "for young whites with good incomes." She is happy to study with people who understand the obstacles. Just as important, the subsidised tuition will allow her to become the first graduate in her family.

Run like the wind

One pertinent question in the wake of the earthquake near Aceh and the tsunami it generated is how much notice of an approaching wave can be given to vulnerable people without the risk of crying “wolf” too often.
Earthquakes themselves are unpredictable, and likely to remain so. But detecting them when they happen is a routine technology. That was not the problem in this case, which was observed by monitoring stations all over the world. Unfortunately for the forecasters, although any powerful submarine earthquake brings the risk of a dangerous tsunami, not all such earthquakes actually result in a big wave, and false alarms cost money and breed cynicism.
Even if you have an effective detection system, though, it is useless if you cannot evacuate a threatened area. Here, speed is of the essence. Computer modelling can help show which areas are likely to be safest, but common sense is often the best guide –run like the wind, away from the sea. Evacuating warnings too, should be easy to give as long as people are awake. Radios are ubiquitous even in most poor places. It is just a matter of having systems in place to tell the radio stations to tell people to run.
The problem was that no one did.

Una pregunta pertinente como consecuencia del terremoto cercano a Aceh y del tsunami que se generó es cuántos avisos de aproximación de ola pueden darse a personas vulnerables sin correr el riesgo de gritar "(que viene el) lobo" con demasiada frecuencia.
Los terremotos en sí mismos son impredecibles, y probablemente lo seguirán siendo. Pero detectarlos cuando suceden es una tecnología rutinaria. Ese no fue el problema en este caso, que fue observado por estaciones de control por todo el mundo. Por desgracia para los meteorólogos, aunque cualquier terremoto submarino de gran alcance conlleva el riesgo de un peligroso tsunami, en realidad no todos los terremotos resultan en una gran ola, y las falsas alarmas cuestan dinero y producen cinismo.
Incluso si se tiene un sistema eficaz de detección, no sirve de nada si no se puede evacuar un área amenazada. Aquí, la velocidad es lo esencial. El modelado por ordenador puede ayudar a mostrar qué áreas es probable que sean más seguras, pero el sentido común suele ser la mejor guía (corre en la dirección del viento, lejos del mar).
Los avisos de evacuación deben ser también fácil de dar, siempre y cuando la gente esté despierta. Hay radios por todas partes, incluso en los lugares más pobres. Es sólo una cuestión de disponer de sistemas ubicados para informar a las emisoras de radio que digan a la gente que corra.  El problema fue que nadie lo hizo.